AFL premiership prediction columns are a proud tradition of being completely wrong. The same heavyweight clubs get tipped every February, the same caveats get applied, and then a team nobody seriously considered lifts the cup in October and everyone pretends they saw it coming.
So rather than tell you Geelong or Collingwood is going to win again — which might be true and is also extremely boring — here are five sides that have genuine reasons to believe 2026 is their year.
1. The Western Bulldogs
The Dogs have been one of the most frustrating clubs in the competition for the last three years — talented enough to beat anyone on their day, inconsistent enough to lose to teams they should roll. But the pieces are clicking. Their midfield is as good as any in the competition when it runs, and a settled defensive six gives them a structural backbone they’ve lacked. Don’t be surprised if they’re playing finals football deep into September.
2. Port Adelaide
Port have been knocking on the door without quite breaking through. Their forward line is among the most dangerous in the competition, and if their midfield can stay healthy for a full season — which has been the critical variable — they’re a genuine flag threat. The Adelaide Oval fortress effect in finals remains one of the most underrated advantages in the game.
3. Greater Western Sydney
The Giants have quietly assembled a seriously good list. They’re young, they’re fast, and they have the kind of depth that becomes a decisive advantage during the grinding back half of a season. Giants Stadium is becoming a genuine fortress. If their young stars take the next step in 2026, GWS could be September’s big story.
4. Brisbane Lions
Yes, Brisbane have been in this conversation before. But this team feels different — more experienced, more streetwise, with a genuine killer instinct that has been the missing ingredient in previous finals campaigns. The Gabba in September is a daunting assignment for any visiting team. If Brisbane stay healthy, they’ll be there at the end.
5. St Kilda
The Saints are the wildcard. Their list is better than their recent record suggests, and there’s a feeling within the club that the culture has genuinely shifted. Long-suffering Saints fans have heard this before. But the talent is there, the coaching group is settled, and in a year where the top four looks more open than usual, St Kilda being in the mix isn’t as crazy as it might sound.
The Bottom Line
AFL 2026 looks wide open. The traditional powerhouses have their own injury concerns and form questions. The window is open for someone to sneak through. These five teams have the ingredients — whether they have the execution is what the next eight months will decide.
Whatever happens, September is going to be good.
